Final Report of Busted forecast for June 20th 2016
Matt Jones-WKBN
Forecasted Temperatures:
Low: 62
High: 85
Actual:
Low: 67
High: 88
Synopsis:
With a massive ridge building in the western United States there was a short wave tough that is located just over the great lakes. This can be confirmed by record breaking temperatures at the surface in the west as well as a surface low located over the Hudson Bay. The digging 500mb jet maximum is located over Lake Superior during the start of the period and then begins to weaken towards 06Z on Tuesday. At the surface a southeastward moving cold front will pass through the DMA toward the end of the period. Both the GFS and Euro showed strong thunderstorms ahead of the katafront with the first line of showers moving in the middle of the afternoon. The variability of this forecast was the timing on when this front was going to move through the area. A quickly advancing front would produce more severe weather between 21Z Monday through 00Z Tuesday while a slower moving front would just produce showers after 00Z on Tuesday.
Initial Forecast at 3:45pm EST 6/19/16:
For the initial low, at the beginning of the period it was identified that there would be southwesterly winds coming in throughout the morning but winds were forecasted to be around 5mph. With this there would be some warm air advection but nothing significant enough to effect temperatures. I also noticed that the skies were forecasted to be clear all night long and looking at satellite imagery it confirmed that there were no clouds in central OH. The models were not in agreement with the low for Monday morning in that there was a 14 degree variability with the SREF Plumes for the low temperatures from 59 degrees to 73 degrees. Looking at the MOS, the GFS came in with a low at 61 and the NAM with a low at 64. Since there was clear skies and light winds I decided to forecast a low on the lower end of the spectrum.
As for the high temperatures, models were in better agreement bur still had an 8 degree variability. It was known for several days leading up to this event that Monday was going to be the peak in terms of High temperatures for the week. However the last few days the models were trending warmer then the actual forecasted temperatures of 1-2 degrees. With the NAM and GFS forecasting a high for the period at 88 degrees I made a decision to forecast a high of 87 degrees. These were the temperatures that I produced and aired for the 6:00 pm and 10:00pm shows on WKBN.
Final Forecast at 10:45pm EST 6/29/16:
After looking at the latest model runs it was determined that the cloud deck would approach the DMA but would remain over central OH for the night. This combined with winds around 5mph and strong disagreement within the models I stayed with a forecasted low temperature of 62 degrees.
As for the high temperatures, after looking at the MOS, both the NAM and GFS backed off the forecasted high to the mid 80s. The NWS in CLE identified this as well and lowered their forecasted high to 87 degrees from 89 degrees. This was due to the timing of the passing cold front which now would advance faster than previously expected thus bringing in the cloud deck sooner in the afternoon. Finally with understanding that the ASOS station reads lower than the surrounding stations, I made the decision to drop my forecast two degrees to 85 degrees.
Observed:
For the overnight low at the beginning of the period the southwesterly winds picked up earlier than expected and started advecting warmer air into the DMA around 6Z Monday morning. This combined with high cirrus clouds advancing further eastward than expected. The low did not dip down into the low 60s but in fact stayed in the upper 60s.
For the daytime high I was counting on the cold front to advance earlier than expected but by the 12Z model runs, the cold front had in fact not advanced further than expected over night. This caused the lower cloud deck to not move in until around 18Z that afternoon, allowing enough sunlight to reach the surface to warm the DMZ up into the Upper 80s.
Take-aways:
No matter who you ask the timing of a frontal system can be a challenging forecast especially when the timing of the front has a direct impact on the high and low temperature of that day. What I would do differently would be to stick with what I know. I changed my thinking about the timing of the front based off of one model run closer to 11pm when I would of given more credit to the past runs that were in agreement all day long. As for the low, I will give more focus to the winds and what the variability is during the hours when the low might occur. Also I will pay more attention to the cloud deck and the proximity to my DMA during the morning hours.
I write this not to apologize but make an effort to improve from my mistakes and to make myself a better forecaster.
-Matt Jones
